Market Comments - Q3 2023

Printfriendly PDF version

Updated on 31.03.2024

 

Market development

In Q1 2024, global equities reported excellent returns. As a Danish investor, you could also benefit from a rising US dollar relative to Danish kroner.
The reason behind the positive development in the equity markets must be found, among other things, in confidence in growth progress and continued high expectations for the potential of artificial intelligence and weight-loss medication. At the beginning of 2024, both NVIDIA (artificial intelligence) and Novo Nordisk (weight-loss medication) showed increase and thus continued their positive trend from 2023.

The trend in early 2024 was rising interest rates resulting in headwinds to bonds which therefore delivered more modest returns.

Market expectations and the signals from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are still that inflation is under control and interest rates can be lowered later in 2024.

 

Performance

The global equity market had a very strong start to the year, and since we also saw slight increases to bond investments, it was yet another quarter of positive returns across all pools.

Over the quarter, the total equity portfolio generated a return of more than 10% in the quarter. The high return was broadly based but with differences across strategies and regions.

After a fourth quarter affected by falling interest rates, the rates rose again over the first quarter. This put a damper on bond returns, but despite this, the bond strategies generated a positive return.

 

The fund*

Benchmark

Diff.

Latest quarter

4,36%

3,57%

0,78%

Year-to-date

4,36%

3,57%

0,78%

*See past performance under the tab Past Performance

Right now

At the beginning of 2024, we saw two possible scenarios:

  1. Growth will accelerate, which will be good news for equities and less beneficial for bonds due to rising interest rates.
  2. The delayed effects of the higher interest rates will put pressure on growth with negative consequences for equities and positive consequences for bonds.

So far in 2024, we have seen scenario 1. We consider that it is still too early to completely write off scenario 2, but for it to happen, we must see a weakness in the strong trend on the equity market.

 

Overall, we have a balanced risk in our portfolios, with which we are comfortable. However, the market sentiment is very positive, and this makes the market more sensible to negative surprises and increases the risk of a setback for equities. Nevertheless, this may also give us some opportunities to increase the proportion of equities.

Please note

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The value of and return on your investment may fall, and you may not get back the full amount invested. An initial charge is usually made when you purchase and sell units. The fund may invest in instruments denominated in various currencies. At least 75% of the fund assets will at all times be invested in EUR or hedged to EUR. You should be aware that changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on your investment. This may also be the case if EUR is not your base currency.

Information in this text should not be regarded as investment advice, and investors should consult their own investment and tax advisers before buying or selling.